Thinking Like Owners…
Posted in Economic Outlook, Government Policy on May 11th, 2012
In the first quarter of 2012, the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish annual rate of 2.2 percent, even less than the 2.6 percent forecast and well below the 2011 fourth quarter rate of 3 percent. A column in the latest issue of Forbes magazine by Rich Karlgaard highlights the importance of faster growth for [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook, Leading Indicators on Apr 10th, 2012
The Institute for Trend Research is projecting continued economic growth throughout 2012, supported in part by a rise in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March. The PMI monthly figure (yellow line) showed gains from its February mark of 52.4, to 53.4 in March. This signals the 32nd consecutive month of growth for the manufacturing [...]
Posted in Capital Formation, Economic Outlook, Government Policy, Lower-Middle Market, Small Business on Apr 5th, 2012
Scott Shane, Professor of Entrepreneurial Studies at Case Western Reserve University published a recent commentary on Bloomberg Businessweek that will likely echo thoughts of many lenders, borrowers and advisors. Professor Shane likens the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage small business credit to the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Bernanke and his Fed team, supplanting [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook, Government Policy on Feb 3rd, 2012
A recent article in Foreign Policy highlights four things that have the potential to wreck the economy and four things that could drive it toward success. In today’s global economy, something like the collapse of the European system could have severe implications for the U.S. and economies worldwide. On the list of things that could [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook, Private Equity on Jan 27th, 2012
According to PitchBook, 2011 came to a close with buyout multiples nearly matching 2008 levels. Coming in at 9.1x EBITDA, this marked a sharp increase from 7.3x EBITDA in 2010 and a continued rise for two straight years. At the same time, a recent survey of fund managers found that an increased investment of capital [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook, Uncategorized on Jan 19th, 2012
The ACG Monthly Luncheon in January featured economist Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR). As many of you know, SDR closely follows ITR’s economic forecasting. Alan gave an excellent presentation and here are my takeaways from the event: According to ITR, the US economy will skip Phase C & D and move [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook on Nov 22nd, 2011
After a brief downward turn in September, the 1/12 rate of change is again on the rise, renewing confidence in a steady economic growth though 2012. The most significant piece of data in October’s upward trend was a renewed rise in building permits. In addition, fewer unemployment claims and a boost in demand for consumer [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook, Government Policy, Small Business, State of the Market, Strategic Planning on Oct 21st, 2011
Thanks again to those that participated in the survey and contributed to the production of meaningful results. Blame Game Internally, our office was split as to how the poll results would fall. In reality, the poll results leave little question as to the sentiment of our clients. Nearly 77% of the respondents believe that regulatory [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook on Sep 6th, 2011
In light of a quick response from the U.S. to the economic downturn in the form of quick interest rate cuts and stimulus spending, many fear that inflation is imminent. However, based on Japan’s financial crisis and subsequent deflation during the 90s, we cannot rule out deflation. Some are claiming that if deflation were to [...]
Posted in Economic Outlook, Leading Indicators on Aug 10th, 2011
The U.S. Leading Indicator in June again showed signs of continued upward momentum for the economy in the second half of 2012. A number of positive factors, namely building permits and real money supply, easily offset negative contributors like stock prices and consumer confidence. The 1/12 rate-of-change jumped again, this time to six percent. That’s [...]