U.S. Leading Indicator Signals Continued Recovery

Despite an August decline, the U.S Leading Indicator continues to show positive signs for a continued, albeit slow recovery through 2011.

The recent dip in the 1/12 rate of change was due in large part to slightly higher unemployment claims in August. The decline may indicate slower growth to come, but there is no indication that it will slow to the point of a continued recession.

In fact, an increase in the 1/12 rate of change toward the end of 2010 could be a signal for a higher rate of growth approaching at the end of next year.