As you know, at SDR we follow the Institute for Trend Research economic trend analysis. In fact, this September we are hosting Brian Beaulieu at our CEO Forum.
According to the ITR Trends Report for June 2011, the economy is running higher than it was a year ago. However, while most of the benchmarks have improved over last year, the rate of growth is declining. As you can see in the graph below, this puts our economy on the backside of the bell curve.
While one of the benchmarks, housing, has slipped below zero, the experts at the Institute for Trend Research are predicting what they call a “soft landing”, without hitting the bottom of the valley.
The report notes that the economy has hit a “hard landing” four times in the last 30 years, while it has experienced soft landings seven times. Of those seven soft landings, the housing market hit bottom in four of them. With that in mind, ITR’s prediction certainly isn’t unusual, particularly when followed by a major recession like we had in 2008-2009.